Stock Market Timing Service

 

Stock Market Timing 20220614

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Good morning everyone, and welcome to Tuesday Morning. My name is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com, with today's look at North American Stock Market Trends.

In the pre-market this morning. Stock index Futures are slightly above fair-value, but we're not expecting them to stray too far.

As we are starting the first of a two-day fed meeting and of course, things are generally fairly quiet until 2 pm. Wednesday afternoon. And that's when we expect price volatility to expand dramatically.

Monday turned out to be another aggressive day of selling.

It wasn't that long ago that we got new early warning signals on the Daily Panic Zone charts. Of course, that doesn't guarantee the Market's going to drop. It does tell us to be aware of our surroundings and look for signals.

And of course we were looking to see if the market could take out resistance, and that didn't happen. And then finally, on Thursday, the market started to roll over and generated a new daily sell signals for. the major indices and major sub-sectors. And, of course, we've seen the market head lower ever since.

Now, the VIX was a bit out of sync with the market over the last couple of weeks. We saw the VIX continue to make new lows for this move, but we couldn't get the stock market to. make new highs. It was stuck at resistance, so the VIX finally got down to 24 and stopped. And then on Friday it actually closed above the Upper Channel line. So, a day behind the stock market this time, and then it continue to head higher yesterday. We ran up to the 34.38 level, which is back to the april-may highs. And course, our next stop could be the 37.50 level, which would take us back up to the February-March highs. And, of course, we're expecting the market to get up over 40, before we see a significant bottom.

Of course, the VIX ETF's played catch-up to the stock market, and they also moved up on Friday. giving us a Buy Signal. They continue to move higher on Monday. Whether you're looking at the VIXY or the HUV.TO trading on the TSX.

Over the weekend we were looking at the major indices to see if the market might find support at the May Lows. Of course that would be very bullish if we could find support there. And could possibly lead to a double bottom. For the Ishares for the TSX 60 the magic number was $30.07. Well yesterday, we actually traded through that level. But came back and close to just above it at $30.14. So, so far, that is a holding the Canadian Market in Check. The Canadian Market still has that the energy premium, but it started to evaporate on Monday as the energy stocks started to roll over. Now, looking at the ishares for the TSX. 60, our next Target to the downside is $29.69.

Looking at the SPY ETF for the S&P 500. Our magic Number was $380.54. We broke down below that yesterday, and fact of you can see the S&P 500 SPY ETF has gapped. lower the past couple of days. That is some of very aggressive selling. Our next downside Target for the SPY ETF on both our weekly and daily chart was 375. And that's exactly where we landed at the close on Monday. Looking at our next downside target for the SPY ETF is $359.38.

Looking at the QQQ's for the NASDAQ 100. We are looking to see if $280.21. would hold. It did not and our next Target to the downside for the QQQ's is $265.63.

Now, if anyone asked you, is it time to hide in bonds?. The answer is a very enthusiastic NO. we saw the XBB.TO, the TLT, the EMB for Emerging-Market bonds, and the J&K for Junk bonds all head aggressively lower on Monday.

Looking at currencies. The US dollar Index is in the news, making a new high yesterday. It's not only on the back of a falling Euro, but other major currencies, including the Canadian dollar have been selling off over the past few days.

Looking at Commodities. I won't go through them all this morning. It's just important to note that energy stocks have rolled over on both sides of the border. So, in Canada, the TSX Energy. Index was down a little over 3% In the US. the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was down over 5% on Monday.

We talked about gold over the weekend. Gold is stuck in a Range, 1875 on the top, 1812.50 on the bottom. On Friday we closed at 1875.20. Of course, if we could continue to move higher, our next target would be 1937.50. Unfortunately, we had a huge reversal day on Monday. Gold was down $55 and closed at 1820. So just that $8 away from support, and the $8 away from breaking support. We will have to see how things move over the next couple of days. Right now in the pre-market, gold is up $3. as I am doing this presentation.

Let's go and finish off with Bitcoin. Bitcoin sold off aggressively yesterday. Our next Target to the downside for Bitcoin is a psychological Target of $20,000. If that breaks then $18,750. would be our next Target to the downside and the bottom of our projected trading range. Etherium also sold off on Monday. We would expect there would be some psychological support at $1,000 if that breaks then $937.50. would be our next Target to the downside. Of course, along with the cryptocurrencies moving lower, some of the cryptocurrency stocks have also been sold off. Coinbase was down yesterday. Coinbase has been in the gutter for quite a while. It's been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, so that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. And then in Canada. you've got a Hut 8 Mining (HUT.TO), which came into Monday's, trading action already on a sell signal. And of course, this stock has been devastated. And you can see, we started off at $18 up at the top of the screen and where all the way down at $2. So yeah, these stocks have been in a major downtrend for quite a while. So nothing really new happened to them on Monday.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday and at that time we'll take a look at some of the leveraged ETFs.